CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sat 14 Jan 06:00 - Sun 15 Jan 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 14 Jan 12:19 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Upper blocking high remains anchored over NE portions of Europe ... while weak upper cut-off low will travel across the Balkan States into the central Mediterranean Sea at the SE/S periphery of the upper high during the period. In response ... upper low over the W Mediterranean on Friday evening is progged to move eastwards towards the S Ionian Sea. As part of extensive low-pressure complex over the Atlantic ... intense upper trough and associated deepening SFC low will reach W Ireland towards Sunday early morning.

DISCUSSION

...W Mediterranean and S Ionian Sea...
Models advertise weak CAPE over the S Ionian Sea towards late Saturday night ... and over the W Mediterranean Sea throughout the period. Current observations suggest that the air over the S Ionian Sea will be quite cold and dry in the lowest layers ... and the fetch is likely to be insufficient for accumulation of BL moisture capable of sustaining deep convective updrafts despite GFS suggesting rather deep CAPE over the S Ionian Sea. Present indications are that weak/shallow convection may develop over the S Ionian Sea ahead of the upper low approaching from the W ... but that lightning strikes will be quite isolated/sporadic. Convection over the W Mediterranean should be even more shallow ... and threat for widespread lightning seems to be quite low there as well. Altogether ... a TSTM forecast does not seem to be required ATTM.

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